Is the bike industry in trouble?

Lost Kiwi

Lost Kiwi

Well-Known Member
Just had a very interesting conversation as part of my day job with a great character from the bike industry (60+ years of experience). We got side-tracked sharing a common interest as cyclists and he started discussing the state of the industry.

We all know the mess the supply chain for bike components has been and still is. For example just this week Shimano are still giving lead times for some of their high end stuff out till January 2023. So the manufacturer response has been to stockpile like crazy. They have huge amounts of inventory right now. The problem is they aren't shifting it, the COVID bike boom appears to be over. But you can't turn simply turn off what you've committed to buying. Especially when its on a slow boat across the Pacific. Some segments are reportedly sitting on a 7:1 inventory to sales ratio and in some cases going as high as 13:1.

You need to pay for that stuff and you need space to store it all. What happens when you can't and no-one suddenly wants to buy your products?
https://www.dcrainmaker.com/2022/06/saris-cycle-group-for-sale-process-company-backstory.html
https://www.bicycleretailer.com/ind...covid-whiplash-restructures-sale#.Yr3wwHbMJD8

Saris is a very well established company with some some of the biggest bike manufacturers their customers.
I bet a lot of the big players would be taking notice of this, if they aren't they should be.

TLDR, maybe cheaper bikes are on the horizon soon as manufacturers find themselves struggling to shift stock.
 
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tick said:
I was in Target last month, they had an entire aisle of Legos that finally got off the boat, months late to Christmas.

And the good folks at Revel just sent me an email letting me know that Why Cycles is having a $500 off sale.

Supply, demand, yadda yadda.
Click to expand...
When is Revel having a sale?

I have no sympathy for commerce or the free markets.
I'm still a little butt hurt housing prices didn't tank during Covid because we decided it was okay to be communists and give people free money. So, yeah, Cranky old man Sh!t...
 
Sasquatch9billion said:
When is Revel having a sale?

I have no sympathy for commerce or the free markets.
I'm still a little butt hurt housing prices didn't tank during Covid because we decided it was okay to be communists and give people free money. So, yeah, Cranky old man Sh!t...
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If it makes you feel better, it looks like home prices are tanking now…or at least the asking prices have stopped going up up up. Doubling the price of money can do that.
 
tick said:
If it makes you feel better, it looks like home prices are tanking now…or at least the asking prices have stopped going up up up. Doubling the price of money can do that.
Click to expand...
Yeah, Jennifer and I figured the bottom would drop out during covid. Had we known how inflated the prices would become, we would have purchased a home and perhaps had some good equity when I retire in a couple years.

On a sad note, my greedy POS ex wife made me sell our home when we got the divorce. Sadly, we would have had about $600k in equity right now. I think we split the whole $50k we made at the time of the sale.
 
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UPSed said:
Yeah, Jennifer and I figured the bottom would drop out during covid. Had we known how inflated the prices would become, we would have purchased a home and perhaps had some good equity when I retire in a couple years.

On a sad note, my greedy POS ex wife made me sell our home when we got the divorce. Sadly, we would have had about $600k in equity right now. I think we split the whole $50k we made at the time of the sale.
Click to expand...
too early, experts do not even know we are in a recession yet. Alert we have been. Lesser markets are reducing prices about 5-10%. normal markets not yet. Hot markets not at all.
Happy mahalo trails
I saw one place go ut 25% clazy
 
Sasquatch9billion said:
When is Revel having a sale?

I have no sympathy for commerce or the free markets.
I'm still a little butt hurt housing prices didn't tank during Covid because we decided it was okay to be communists and give people free money. So, yeah, Cranky old man Sh!t...
Click to expand...

During the first 3 months of Covid the housing market was dead. At that time there where some good buying opportunity.
Trying to time the housing market (or the stock market) is difficult. Only hindsight will provide clarity.
 
The bike industry is shifting its focus to E-bikes. I wonder how long it will be before demand for analog bikes drops to the point of clearance sales becoming standard, and also how long the timeframe will be between clearance sales of modern analog bikes and manufacturers no longer supporting them to the extent we are relegated to very boutique brands with limited parts spec. If ever a conservative ideology were worthwhile, it’s bikes bikes bikes! Progression here sucks. E-bikes were supposed to get people out of cars. Lazy wankers using them to recreate instead and still drive to the grocery store and trailhead. Suck it E-holes! You know who you are, and shame on you. There I said it. I sound like a hiker from the early 1980s and yesterday. Wheels are for sissies. Motors are for commerce. Gas is only $4/gallon while beer cost at least 3x that and people celebrate with photos of their brews on the internet. Go Kings Go! Did Doug take over my keyboard while I was in the bathroom? Real men of genius! Where’s Mikie? How many trailhead group texts is Faustie juggling? Who’s riding where? Did I flush? Maybe next time.
 
DangerDirtyD said:
The bike industry is shifting its focus to E-bikes. I wonder how long it will be before demand for analog bikes drops to the point of clearance sales becoming standard, and also how long the timeframe will be between clearance sales of modern analog bikes and manufacturers no longer supporting them to the extent we are relegated to very boutique brands with limited parts spec. If ever a conservative ideology were worthwhile, it’s bikes bikes bikes! Progression here sucks. E-bikes were supposed to get people out of cars. Lazy wankers using them to recreate instead and still drive to the grocery store and trailhead. Suck it E-holes! You know who you are, and shame on you. There I said it. I sound like a hiker from the early 1980s and yesterday. Wheels are for sissies. Motors are for commerce. Gas is only $4/gallon while beer cost at least 3x that and people celebrate with photos of their brews on the internet. Go Kings Go! Did Doug take over my keyboard while I was in the bathroom? Real men of genius! Where’s Mikie? How many trailhead group texts is Faustie juggling? Who’s riding where? Did I flush? Maybe next time.
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Great summary! On a UNICYCLE!

You remember the Real Men of Genius posts from Paul Schmidt? Or was that someone else? @Mikie?
 
DangerDirtyD said:
The bike industry is shifting its focus to E-bikes. I wonder how long it will be before demand for analog bikes drops to the point of clearance sales becoming standard, and also how long the timeframe will be between clearance sales of modern analog bikes and manufacturers no longer supporting them to the extent we are relegated to very boutique brands with limited parts spec. If ever a conservative ideology were worthwhile, it’s bikes bikes bikes! Progression here sucks. E-bikes were supposed to get people out of cars. Lazy wankers using them to recreate instead and still drive to the grocery store and trailhead. Suck it E-holes! You know who you are, and shame on you. There I said it. I sound like a hiker from the early 1980s and yesterday. Wheels are for sissies. Motors are for commerce. Gas is only $4/gallon while beer cost at least 3x that and people celebrate with photos of their brews on the internet. Go Kings Go! Did Doug take over my keyboard while I was in the bathroom? Real men of genius! Where’s Mikie? How many trailhead group texts is Faustie juggling? Who’s riding where? Did I flush? Maybe next time.
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Please stop calling them analog bikes! They are mountain bikes! Ebikes are ebikes and mountain bikes are mountain bikes! :)
 
My friend was at SO this weekend; it was really crowded since many other parks were still closed (and because it's become very popular). He said that ebikes proliferated to the extent that they're going to be difficult to restrict. Meanwhile I took one on a nice 20 mile road ride yesterday, all legal and fun since I was alone and chilling from a more arduous weekend.
 
DangerDirtyD said:
The bike industry is shifting its focus to E-bikes. I wonder how long it will be before demand for analog bikes drops to the point of clearance sales becoming standard, and also how long the timeframe will be between clearance sales of modern analog bikes and manufacturers no longer supporting them to the extent we are relegated to very boutique brands with limited parts spec. If ever a conservative ideology were worthwhile, it’s bikes bikes bikes! Progression here sucks. E-bikes were supposed to get people out of cars. Lazy wankers using them to recreate instead and still drive to the grocery store and trailhead. Suck it E-holes! You know who you are, and shame on you. There I said it. I sound like a hiker from the early 1980s and yesterday. Wheels are for sissies. Motors are for commerce. Gas is only $4/gallon while beer cost at least 3x that and people celebrate with photos of their brews on the internet. Go Kings Go! Did Doug take over my keyboard while I was in the bathroom? Real men of genius! Where’s Mikie? How many trailhead group texts is Faustie juggling? Who’s riding where? Did I flush? Maybe next time.
Click to expand...

New strain? Might want to go back to the old stuff.
 
Real bikes will never die.

For one, battery powered bikes are expensive. Just like how the Trek Marlin is still popular, so to will nicer bikes. Maybe fewer, but not so few that they are hard to get.

Two: plenty of people do, and will, want to ride human powered only. Just like plenty of people still run for recreation. Running will never go away, neither will real bikes.

Eventually that market will saturate. Not any time soon, sadly, but it will. We will continue seeing more commuter eBikes (which I welcome) for a much longer time.

Anyway, specialized I believe is having a year end clearance of bikes right now. I'll wait to see if they go lower, I'd love to buy a carbon Stumpy Evo for my GF.
 
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