Coronavirus. Not to be confused with Norcovirus.

Interesting first five minutes. I usually listen to Rogan at work, so I will finish that one up tomorrow.

 

After watching this I have a much better understanding of what is about to happen and this really isn’t good! Can’t deny just how fast this is happening! Wow!

 

@Mikie I don’t know Mikie, I tend to believe this guy. I have only watched a short version of this off of FB and will watch the rest tomorrow. Amazing the effect this can have on the world!

 

As a newly immigrated outsider I find the way this country is reporting and reacting to this whole thing fascinating.

First I need to make some things clear, I don't watch any local news. I cannot because what is shown here is not the news, its deceiving bullshit intended to shock and horrify people (cos handwringing sells).

Somewhere in the middle of that and blissful ignorance lies the truth.

Should we be worried about this? Absolutely. The common flu that kills so many thousands of people every year? Yeah its as many as 52,000 according to the CDC just in the US..... but thats for a death rate of 0.1%. Coronavirus, well thats currenlty running at 6%.

If 1 in 6 people catch this in California and 6% die, thats about 400,000 people pushing up daisies. That is what the UK is currently planning as worst case (1 in 6)

I'm not rushing out to buy toilet paper but I am worried.

 

No it'S not. Not even close. In China, were they admit they have under reported cases, it was 3% and the majority of those deaths happened early on before they knew what they were dealing with and hospitals were overwhelmed. When the dust settles, Ill be surprised if it is even 1%. And the majority of deaths have been people with underlying health issues. What are death rates of elderly people over 80 who have serious secondary health issues WITHOUT coronavirus? 10%? 20%? How many people have had the disease and were asyptomatic or not sick enough to feel they needed medical care?

Yes it is serious and yes people are dying. But the kinds of numbers people are throwing around are ridiculuous and without any justification. Even in this thread, people are comparing this outbreak to spamish flu of 100 years ago during WW1. Gee, I think a couple things have changed since then. The hysteria needs to stop.

 

As previously stated.
There comparison was not indicated to compare intensity and death rate.

Spanish flu was way worse.

But
It was an example that summer does not kill viruses. That's #fakescience

 

This is the current state of play here in the US.


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

 

Obesity is an underlying condition, different set of circumstances in this country, you may be healthy but this has the potential to knock us right off our knees? I certainly hope not!

 

I think it's difficult in this environment to know what and who to believe. Politics have definitely entered the equation. For every expert that is adamant that there is no real need for major concern, there is an equally compelling expert that believes this can and will ravage us. I think it's important to remember that this is just getting started in the world so the numbers we are looking at now have the potential of exploding (or not depending on where you get your news)...it's way too early to put out any reliable and stable statistics. I think another important factor that I read somewhere is that since we are living in a global world, it's naive to think that industrialized countries with solid systems in place are safe. As long as there are people from less industrialized/advanced regions moving around the planet, we are vulnerable. As for me, I will remain cautious, change some of my habits, think twice about where I go/what I do, but not stop living my life in as normal a way as possible. I have elderly parents and family members with some serious health conditions so I need to keep their safety in mind as well. To me, this is "probably" a mild illness...to them, it has too high a chance to be something else. Far be it for me to be haphazard with putting them at risk. There are no real consequences for my using extra caution, but potentially very bad ones if I do not.

 

I'll give you a loan if you have the collateral?

 

Very well said! Now that this has been officially coined as a pandemic that is what worries me.

 

E

 

H1N1 was classified as a pandemic in 2009-2010. Similar panic, IIRC.

For anyone who did not listen to the podcast posted earlier, the expert said those most at risk in the USA are 55+, those with compromised immune systems, older smokers, and fat people.
He also said we are a very long way from a vaccine, that this is just the beginning, and that it is estimated to be 10 to 15 times worse than the typical flu (in deaths). He specifically recommended that people 55 and older should avoid crowded public places.

 

Yes. And it states that of all 970 known active cases 1% are serious or critical - across all ages and health states. Sounds pretty good - considering over 50% of all Americans over the age of 50 are obese. How many "unknown" or asymptomatic cases are out there? How many of the known cases that are serious or critical will die from the disease? To be honest, the numbers we are dealing with are SO SMALL that you can't even statistically analyze them - the sample sizes are not large enough.

 

Really intelligent response. I'm old, but have even older individuals that would be in grave danger if they contracted the virus. Anyone who thinks this is a joke should watch what's going on in Italy.

 

Ain’t no joke!

 

If I understood correctly what was said today in a statement by the CDC, you will remain immune to it for a limited period only.

 

2019-2020 NBA season has been suspended after a player on the Utah Jazz tested positive for Corona Virus.

 

The podcast was definitely informative. Another thing I took away was that extrapolating death rates as a percentage based on other countries likely won't be applicable in the US, as the high risk factors of obesity, diabetes, and high blood pressure, are much more rampant here and therefore the death rates may be a good bit higher. Overall I have been pretty dismissive about all of this, but that changed my perspective a bit. His take was very precautionary, but not alarmist. Basically, hoarding water and toilet paper is stupid. Staying out of crowds is not.

 

Uh... WTF? What happened to having a sick player sit out the game while the rest of the team played? Are they going to suspend the season every time someone gets the flu? It's not like he got leprosy... two or three weeks and he will be back playing!

 

Sounded to me like it might have been immunization, but I could easily have misconstrued the statement.

 

So far this pandemic has cost us over $11,000 for every man, woman and child in the country! Just in terms of what the panic has done to the stock market!

 

All travel from Europe suspended for 30 days starting Friday at midnight.

 

I too may have misinterpreted it. I was only half listening.

 

Some friends of ours just went to Paris. Hope they plan on staying for a while.

 

I currently have a number of friends at an event in Paris. Did see rumor that Americans can return. Some of my friends might have other citizenship.

 

I just read through this thread and there is a lot of dismissive attitude towards this pandemic. Let me see if I can at least convince you guys to consider the other side.

Yes, there is only a small number of infected currently, it dwarfs in comparison to to the common flu. Unfortunately we have a pretty good idea what the rate of growth of this virus is: about 33% per day. As most of us know, exponential growth can be spectacular. In a blink of an eye we’re in the millions. Dr. Fauci, director of National institute of allergy and infectious disease at NIH (if you are going to trust any expert, he’s the man) estimates we’ll have up to 150 million people ultimately infected with the bug.
The best estimate for mortality rate of the infection is about 10-20x the rate of standard flu. We have data from China on mortality rate of people over 80 at 15%.
Even if the mortality rate(reflection of severity of disease) was much lower than that, it now becomes a matter of saturation. Most hospitals don’t have a lot of extra ICU beds and ventilators sitting around. It is inefficient and costly to have excess capacity. When you have a sudden dramatic increase in really sick people, our health system will be quickly overwhelmed. That is what happened in China and that is what’s happening in Italy.
I hope these projections will somehow be incorrect, I’m sure we all do. But the potential for disaster is very real.

Panic is never good and healthy skepticism is to be encouraged, but try to be open to the idea that this Corona deal is not is not just some political or media construct cooked up for nefarious purpose.

 

When organizations like NASA are sending everyone home for weeks... Hmmm...

Oh, and I got tired of listening to the news just now, and went to change the channel. The Apple TV highly recommended World War Z. Nothing like a zombie apocalypse movie to take your mind off the global pandemic...