The theory of additional action..?

Somewhere in my not too brilliant past, I'd survived enough mistakes to come up with a theory. The concept is you can often get away with one action, but 2 or more can be incompatible and lead to a guaranteed fail (or heroic save). Seems to apply to a lot of situations..

Like, starting a technical downhill and then reaching for your water bottle. Or, taking your wife out to an expensive dinner and then getting caught looking at another woman. Make sense?

So in terms of riding, it could be committing to a big ride on a hot day.. but not bringing enough water. Or.. railing a trail you haven't ridden in awhile; then hitting a new jump without scoping the landing.

The upside of the theory is it helps you identify potential pile-on effects.. to either not do them or catch on early and back away from the fangs.

Anybody else think it's a valid theory or have any experience with the concept?

 

When $hit goes sideways it is always an accumulated affect of a few bed decisions.
In most cases the mess could have been avoided entirely by changing one of those along the way.
Unfortunately, sometimes the hits the fan before you realized it.
Somebody needs to come up with an app for that!

 

Very true, and plenty of cliche's to back it up, like "look before you leap."

My personal app is always.."Don't ever do that again(!)," generally followed or preceded by, "Ouch!"

The success of the theory for me is to keep it in mind and try to apply it during the add-on phase, before the starts flying. That can be as simple as thinking, "One thing--fine." "Adding a 2nd thing--possible problem--think about it." "Adding a third thing--not good at all--reverse course or stop and simplify."

Example: A buddy and I were rock climbing some random crag north of Mammoth. We had the skill but didn't know the route. At some point, it was my lead and there was run-out slab to get across. Not super long, but steep and exposed. Good anchors on the other side. So, one thing--climbing within our limits (according to the guidebook). Add a thing--exposure. Add a third thing-- high penalty for failure (4 pitches up, big flake to break leg on, ledge and tree also in fall zone). Should've been a no-brainer by then, but..

Fortunately, there was a fourth factor-- turns out my friend (who's a competent, experienced mountaineer) was having bad vibes about the whole route that day. Not sure why. But his honesty in sharing this with me was enough to bring rationality to the situation and the call was made to back off. Easy rappels and we were back on the ground, egos bruised but otherwise whole.

That was then. These days, I try to catch the problem on or before the first "add-on." At my age, I pretty much have to. Hence, the Hot Weather thread.

So, anybody else keep a similar theory in mind, or have examples of relevant successes and failures?

 

HB, not to derail the thread, but seems like most of my bad decisions were "bed" decisions. Always said that I didn't make many wrong moves in my life, but when I did there was always a preacher around.

 

For me (as in the hot weather thread) its a matter of knowing your limits and plan for the unexpected. For example, I bring more water than I know I will use and always plan a way out if things go south. Then the decision to go is a matter of determining if the risk is worth it or not. The knowing when to call it quits is the part you are talking about (I think). For me the 2nd, 3rd, etc action is decided based on knowing your limits and never cross that line. Easier said than done sometimes though.....

 

Not sure if I'm following you @kioti, but would a really obvious application off this theory be the old Horror/Slasher movies such as Friday 13th, dumb kids doing something dumb, then keep doing dumber things until they're dead?

I guess hindsight might show different, but I'd think each decision along the path is separate and should be made as smartly as possible based on the current situation. Yes a bad previous decision might have you in a tough spot, but the next decision needs to be the best you can come up with to get you out. (where's that shrug emoticon)

Best personal experience I can think of, awhile back we did Harding-Peak-Joplin-Luge. No problems until I had a tire start going down on STT from a sidewall scrape on Joplin. IF I would have filled it with Stans pre ride it probably would have held. If I had a little bottle of Stans with me it probably would have held. If I took the time and pumped it up to 50psi I may have made it out to Cooks, albeit it on a slowly deflating tire. Instead, because I wanted to bomb STT and Luge, I took the time in the heat to put a tube in. But then, I didn't put enough psi in because it was getting hot, I was tired of pumping and 25psi is enough for tubeless so "I'll just ride light", and ended up pinch flatting the tube. Now it's really hot and I'm really tired. Lucky my buddy had a tube left, and we stuffed that 29 tube in my 26 tire and put allot of pressure in it and made the lumpy tire ride out about 45 minutes after everyone else. Looking back I would have done things different, but at the time it seemed like the right thing to do....

 

happens and I just deal with it. My thoughts are what's done is done and just learn from your mistakes.

As for hot weather riding, keep it easy and drink lots of water. I use smartwater in my pack on warm to hot days.

 

Well, first of all, valuing the STT and Luge descents enough to change that tube is something that warms my heart.

And yes, pre-ride prep is a great way not to be automatically at #2 as soon as your wheels touch dirt. Or vice versa. And doing a soft tire definitely resets to #1, since it was going to adversely affect your handling. But not filling it enough to avoid a pinch flat, like in that area above my jeep trap, drops you back a bit. Maybe to 1.5? But you thought ahead, handled your problems as they came up and got home unscathed. So lessons learned and possibly new protocol in place.

 

Sounds solid. Were there incidents along the way, like running out of water on a long ride, or are you just naturally a good planner? Either way, it sounds like you've got a pretty good handle on preparedness and risk management.

 

The idea of the theory.. let's call it "1, 2, 3" for a second, is like 1- you're riding along. 2- you add another factor which makes it more complex- like removing a pullover without stopping, and 3- you're riding, you're removing your pullover, and you get it stuck on your helmet and can't see where the heck you're going. So, fail. Never happened to me, by the way. But I did learn to get a pullover off without stopping or having it obstruct my vision, so was able to keep my tires turning and those all important ride times down.

 

Sorry I like my theory better. That is just a chain reaction of bad luck.....

 

I way over-prepare for everything so its kind of planning I guess. In the camelback I carry extra food, bivy sack, shell jacket, first aid, fire starter, HAM radio (with all local repeaters programmed), cell, GPS, phone, tools... Yea, its heavy but I just train with it. I do this for backpacking and multi-day jeep trips too. So far I have never had a situation I couldn't handle but I know things can always go sideways. I have run out of water before and I learned to carry more the next time. Its been trial and error over the years, definitely not naturally good at it. On Jeep trips I have never had to fix my own rig on the trail yet. I always end up helping guys that didnt bring anything. Figures..... I carry all the gear and my jeep never needs it.

 

Wow. Pretty impressive!
My brother used to do that with backpacking and bike touring. Carried a big pack ready for anything. For some reason, I'm the opposite/minimalist. I'm a believer that both approaches have their merit. One time we met on a bike tour where he'd just ridden to the Arctic Circle on the Haul Road. I rode up from Mammoth and met him at the Canadian border so we could ride down the Pacific Coast route to LA. He's a really strong rider so we rode well together, but I had a hard time convincing him he didn't need to buy tons of groceries every day. His "risk" from riding Alaska and the Yukon was that grocery stores were 500 miles apart, and if one was closed he'd need enough food on hand to get to the next one. The precaution was hard to unlearn. And I learned that a bivy sack and space blanket aren't always ideal for a quiet night's sleep.

 

I'd like to say I never make the same mistake twice, only new ones.. but I'm adept at both.

 

Let me try this scenario to see if I've got your basic gist.

The piling up of errors is common in golf and it separates successful pros from wanna-bes.

Hit your tee shot behind a tree. Decide to hero it out through the 3 foot gap towards the hole rather than just suck it up and punch it to the fairway, hit the tree instead of the gap. Ball is farther back and now buried in a bad lie and your next swing is impeded by a tree.

Worst case of this I ever witnessed was Jean Van de Velde at the 18th at the British Open in 1999. Bad choice made by ego and audacity (driver) led to bad position. Then the ego goes crazy and before he knows it his three stroke lead to win the Championship is gone - in one hole. Similar to the movie Tin Cup, but it was real.



Is this the idea behind your thread? One bad decision following another?

 

As Herz was dubbed me: A badass existentialist.

I exist, therefore I am.

Timing is everything.

Whatever is thrown at me, I deal w it. No voodoo here.

I do, however, listen to my intuition which helps me make smart moves.

 

Nowhere to hide in professional golf, but if in doubt-- fire the caddy!

The idea, theory, concept.. is to put up a template to help visualize cause and effect scenarios as they occur. They can occur slowly or almost instantaneously. The goal is conscious risk awareness and/or assessment (though being in the moment is often the best bet for success), in order to identify actions that could lead to errors or injury.

So for me, 1-2-3 is a quick mental image I can look at and say, 2 is a definite add-on in complexity, for me at this time and place. Proceeding with it is then a conscious choice, but with a flag. Then I can look at whether overlaying action #3 is a complete recipe for failure, or outweighed by experience or need.

The system also helps to disengage or acknowledge ego, pressure or other psychological factors in the situation.

And the purpose for the thread is to share the concept, but also learn how others manage risk, evaluate actions as they unfold, and generally keep their faces out of the proverbial .